With just about 30 days until Election Day, political ad spending is at its peak and former President Trump and Vice President Harris are shoring up their bases and increasing outreach to undecided voters.
This election season is unlike any we have seen in recent history, with President Biden stepping out of the race just months before election day and Kamala Harris’s ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket, the path to 270 looks to be wide open.
According to eMarketer, political spending is projected to far exceed 2020 levels, increasing by 28% to spend an estimated total of $12.3B, the highest spending level ever seen for political campaigns.
This surge in spending presents challenges for advertisers, as they compete for limited ad space and audience attention.
Marketers must be prepared and proactive in how they tailor their advertising efforts to avoid being overshadowed and mindful of consumer perceptions and sensitivities that could add new risks during the election cycle.
Political Ad Spend Will Peak in October
While political campaigning has already begun, we typically see much lower levels of investment from January through July. Political spending is at its highest from August through October, with spend peaking during October and pulling back drastically in the first week of November after Election Day.
Vivvix: Political advertising spend Jan ‘20 - Dec ‘20
TV Remains the Focus of Spending, but Digital is Significant
Most political advertising will be spent on traditional channels, particularly linear TV. However, digital is expected to make up a larger percent of total political ad spend than it has in the past, with eMarketer forecasting $3.46B in digital spend, 45% of which will go to Connected TV (CTV), up from 19% in 2020.
In addition to growth in connected TV and streaming (CTV), social media political and issue advocacy spend is also expected to increase. eMarketer is projecting an 86% increase compared to the 2020 election.
Social and Digital Channel Considerations
Similar to 2020, Meta (Facebook & Instagram) and will implement a restriction period between October 29th and November 5th that will prohibit new ads or edits to existing ads about social issues or politics. Advertisers that plan to run social issues ads are also required to include a “Paid for by” disclaimer by October 15th.
For clients who have ad content that may fall into the social issues category, including but not limited to: health, environmental politics (including climate change and sustainability), health and the economy, we recommend either pausing/delaying launch for the restriction period or ensuring all ads are uploaded into platform and have delivered an impression before 10/29 at 12:01 PT.
Once the restriction period begins, advertisers can adjust the bid amount, budget amount, and scheduled end date of ads that require a disclaimer. They can also pause or unpause ads if those ads served at least one impression before 12:01 AM PT on Tuesday, October 29, 2024.
Additionally, Meta’s approach to determining what qualifies as a political or social issue ad remains fluid, with decisions made on a case-by-case basis. As the election approaches, we expect Meta to tighten filters around content that falls within the topic areas mentioned above. This increases the likelihood that non-political and issue advocacy related ads will be falsely flagged. For campaigns launching in October, we recommend accounting for additional time to submit any mistakenly rejected campaigns and ads for appeal before the blackout period.
Meta is also instituting a requirement for advertisers to disclose whether they’ve used AI or other digital techniques to edit social or political ads in an effort to help combat misinformation, inaccurate depictions and label content that could be unreal or non-existent such as videos, quotes, events or images.
With politics dominating news cycles, brands must prioritize brand safety measures to avoid association with sensitive topics. Utilizing website whitelists, blocklists and robust keyword exclusions helps maintain control over ad placements. Social media platforms present additional challenges, requiring careful moderation to navigate heightened audience sensitivity.
TikTok, which has been fraught with debate amongst government officials due to its connection to China, has restricted any paid political ad spending. TikTok’s restrictions on paid political ad spending are significantly more rigid than Meta’s, banning all forms of political advertising. This policy includes not only the ad content itself but also landing pages and creative that could be construed as political or advocacy-related, including:
- References to an election, including voter registration, voter turnout, and appeals for votes, such as ads that encourage people to vote Advocacy for or against past, current, or proposed referenda, ballot measures, and legislative, judicial, or regulatory outcomes or processes. This includes ads that promote or attack government policies or track records.
However, with TikTok being a key channel to reach younger audiences, candidates can still have an organic presence, which at this point in the election, each campaign, candidate, and major surrogates are leveraging.
X (formerly Twitter) recent changes on the platform pose challenges for advertisers as account verification, brand safety and content moderation policies have changed with Elon Musk’s acquisition. For more information on Twitter/X, please reference DXI’s POV on X advertising.
Paid Search on platforms such as Google, Microsoft or retail platforms like Amazon and Walmart won’t see large impacts to costs. While impact will vary by advertiser, the main implication would be for any terms that overlap with political-related keywords.
Certain Geographies and Audiences Will Draw More Political Spend
While presidential campaign spending happens at both a national and local level, local media in battleground states are a huge focus for presidential ad spending. NBC News reports that both campaigns are pouring ad dollars into “blue wall” states – Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania – to target voters who may still be undecided or just now tuning in. We’re also seeing a shift in how campaigns are allocating resources in other swing states, with significant shifts out of Florida, into Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and more.
More than half of every dollar spent on ads in the presidential race from Sept. 1 to 20 were spent in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — with Pennsylvania alone drawing 1 of every 4 dollars spent, according to AdImpact.
How the presidential ad spending battleground has changed
Presidential advertising has virtually disappeared in Florida since this time four years years ago. It's up big in the Great Lakes battlegrounds, Georgia and Nevada.
Percent change in share of ad spend
AdImpact data from Sept. 1-20 2020 compared to 2024 data over the same time period.
Additionally, with presidential candidates campaigning on key issues dominating news cycles, we expect increased focus on certain groups such as younger audiences to reach first-time voters, women or faith-based groups with the recent over-turning of Roe V. Wade, communities such as LGBTQ+ or educators fighting for transgender and educational rights or African American and Hispanic (including Spanish Language) communities to shore up support with these coalitions of voters.
Increased Political Coverage and Discussions Can Challenge Brand Safety
With a large breadth of issues to be covered throughout the election, brands should take extra care to ensure they’re identifying risk environments and topics to avoid. Utilizing a list of website whitelists and blocklists, along with implementing robust keyword exclusions can help keep advertisers' control where they show up in media.
Extra caution should be taken for environments where users can comment or host discussions, such as social media or sponsored articles. These provide an avenue for consumers to openly comment, which is further amplified during political cycles. Even if advertisers or campaigns are not directly tied to or associated with a political campaign, with increased sensitivity, audiences could be triggered in ways they weren’t previously.
ALTERNATIVES FOR NON-POLITICAL ADVERTISERS
It is also worth noting that certain publishers do not accept political advertising, leaving open alternative avenues for non-political advertisers looking to avoid the noise and clutter political ads will cause on other platforms. Partners that do not accept political ads include LinkedIn, Microsoft’s DSP Xandr, Amazon, Spotify, TikTok, and Pinterest. In addition to looking to platforms that do not accept political ads, advertisers can also consider avoiding ad spend in battleground states including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina in October to not be overshadowed.
How Advertisers Should Prepare for and Navigate This Environment
- Proactively assess your marketing plans: Review your current marketing strategies and determine if you need to pivot to different platforms, environments, channels or pause support all together.
- Scenario plan: Develop contingency plans by considering potential political outcomes and identifying risks that may affect your campaigns, allowing swift action.
- Adjust campaign timelines: For campaigns or launches that risk being overshadowed by political messaging, consider adjusting your market approach to avoid battleground states or consider a national approach to avoid political saturation. Additionally, consider whether campaign flighting can be adjusted to later Q4, to avoid being overshadowed by the heaviest political spending.
- Revisit brand safety guidelines: Reassess and strengthen brand safety parameters across all channels.
- Increase media monitoring: Invest in media monitoring and community management, for ongoing intelligence to stay ahead of key issues that impact brand/reputation in an election cycle.
- Invest in predictive analytics: Consider utilizing predictive analytics to monitor and prepare for emerging threats that could develop into brand detractors.
- Evaluate campaigns through a political lens: Assess new brand or campaign launches through a political lens to account for increased sensitivities stemming from the political environment.
Leilani Weaver serves as vice president of performance intelligence for Edelman DXI, where she oversees media strategy, planning, implementation and cross-channel measurement. She is a political campaign veteran and previously worked on the paid media team for Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz's first Gubernatorial race.
Kaitlyn Cwieka serves as associate director of paid media for Edelman DXI, where she plans and executes campaigns across paid social, search, and programmatic. She previously worked on the paid media team for the Biden 2020 campaign.